Hertsmere | ProjectParly

Election history

CON Oliver Dowden Hold

2024-07-04

Majority 7,992 Turnout 65.4% Votes 48,007

Candidate	Party	Count	Share	Swing
✓ Oliver Dowden	CON	21,451	44.7%	-20.2pp
Josh Tapper	LAB	13,459	28.0%	+6.9pp
Darren Selkus	REF	6,584	13.7%	—
Emma Matanle	LD	3,710	7.7%	-3.2pp
John Humphries	GRN	2,267	4.7%	+1.7pp
Ray Bolster		536	1.1%	—

Candidate	Party	Count	Share	Swing
✓ Oliver Dowden	CON	32,651	62.6%	+1.4pp
Holly Kal-Weiss	LAB	11,338	21.7%	-6.9pp
Stephen Barrett	LD	6,561	12.6%	+7.2pp
John Humphries	GRN	1,653	3.2%	+1.3pp

Candidate	Party	Count	Share	Swing
✓ Oliver Dowden	CON	31,928	61.1%	+1.8pp
Fiona Smith	LAB	14,977	28.7%	+6.2pp
Joe Jordan	LD	2,794	5.4%	-0.2pp
David Hoy		1,564	3.0%	-9.8pp
Sophie Summerhayes	GRN	990	1.9%	—

Candidate	Party	Count	Share	Swing
✓ Oliver Dowden	CON	29,696	59.3%	+3.3pp
Richard Butler	LAB	11,235	22.4%	+3.7pp
Frank Ward		6,383	12.7%	+9.1pp
Sophie Bowler	LD	2,777	5.5%	-11.8pp

Candidate	Party	Count	Share	Swing
✓ James Clappison	CON	26,476	56.0%	+2.8pp
Sam Russell	LAB	8,871	18.8%	-8.4pp
Anthony Rowlands	LD	8,210	17.4%	-1.0pp
David Rutter		1,712	3.6%	—
Daniel Seabrook		1,397	3.0%	—
Arjuna Krishna-Das	GRN	604	1.3%	—

Demographics

Changes shown vs 2001 Census

📊 Age

0 to 17

22.1%

35 to 49

20.9%

50 to 64

19.5%

65 and over

19.3%

25 to 34

11.5%

18 to 24

6.7%

🌍 Ethnicity

White

78.0%

Asian or Asian British

9.7%

Other ethnic group

7.6%

Black, African, Caribbean or Black British

4.8%

Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups

3.7%

📊 Age

65 and over

18.4%

18 to 24

6.8%

⛪ Religion

Christian

42.7%

No religion

24.1%

Other religion

18.7%

Jewish

16.9%

Not answered

6.5%

Hindu

4.4%

Muslim

3.6%

Buddhist

0.6%

Sikh

0.2%

🎓 Education

Level 4 qualifications or above

39.3%

No qualifications

16.2%

Level 3 qualifications

14.8%

Level 2 qualifications

13.3%

Level 1 and entry level qualifications

9.2%

Apprenticeship

4.5%

Other qualifications

2.7%

🏠 Housing

Owner-occupiers

66.3%

Private renters

16.8%

Social renters

16.8%

Rent free

0.1%

🌍 Ethnicity

White

85.0%

Asian or Asian British

7.4%

Black, African, Caribbean or Black British

3.9%

Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups

2.6%

Other ethnic group

1.0%

📊 Age

45 to 64

26.0%

Under 18

22.9%

30 to 44

20.7%

65 and over

16.3%

18 to 29

14.1%

⛪ Religion

Christian

51.7%

No religion

19.2%

Jewish

14.3%

Not answered

7.8%

Hindu

3.2%

Muslim

2.4%

Other religion

0.7%

Buddhist

0.6%

Sikh

0.2%

🎓 Education

Level 4 qualifications or above

30.8%

No qualifications

19.4%

Level 2 qualifications

15.8%

Level 1 and entry level qualifications

14.1%

Level 3 qualifications

11.2%

Other qualifications

5.8%

Apprenticeship

2.9%

🏠 Housing

Owner-occupiers

68.8%

Social renters

17.4%

Private renters

12.5%

Rent free

1.2%

🌍 Ethnicity

White

92.5%

Asian or Asian British

3.3%

Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups

1.6%

Black, African, Caribbean or Black British

1.4%

Other ethnic group

1.2%

⛪ Religion

Christian

63.0%

No religion

13.4%

Jewish

11.3%

Not answered

7.9%

Hindu

2.0%

Muslim

1.4%

Other religion

0.5%

Buddhist

0.3%

Sikh

0.2%

🎓 Education

No qualifications

23.6%

Level 4 qualifications or above

22.7%

Level 2 qualifications

21.6%

Level 1 and entry level qualifications

17.2%

Level 3 qualifications

8.8%

Other qualifications

6.1%

🏠 Housing

Owner-occupiers

76.4%

Social renters

16.1%

Private renters

6.7%

Rent free

2.1%

Demographic change (2001–2021)

Measured change only. No assumptions or interpretation.

🌍 Ethnicity

Group	2001 %	2011 %	2021 %	01→11	11→21	01→21
Other ethnic group	1.2%	1.0%	7.6%	-0.2pp	+6.6pp	+6.4pp
Asian or Asian British	3.3%	7.4%	9.7%	+4.1pp	+2.3pp	+6.3pp
Black, African, Caribbean or Black British	1.4%	3.9%	4.8%	+2.5pp	+0.8pp	+3.4pp
Mixed or Multiple ethnic groups	1.6%	2.6%	3.7%	+1.1pp	+1.1pp	+2.1pp
White	92.5%	85.0%	78.0%	-7.5pp	-7.1pp	-14.6pp

⛪ Religion

Group	2001 %	2011 %	2021 %	01→11	11→21	01→21
Buddhist	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	+0.3pp	0.0pp	+0.2pp
Christian	63.0%	51.7%	42.7%	-11.3pp	-9.0pp	-20.4pp
Hindu	2.0%	3.2%	4.4%	+1.2pp	+1.3pp	+2.4pp
Jewish	11.3%	14.3%	16.9%	+2.9pp	+2.6pp	+5.6pp
Muslim	1.4%	2.4%	3.6%	+1.1pp	+1.2pp	+2.2pp
Sikh	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.0pp	0.0pp	0.0pp
No religion	13.4%	19.2%	24.1%	+5.8pp	+4.9pp	+10.7pp
Other religion	0.5%	0.7%	18.7%	+0.2pp	+18.0pp	+18.1pp
Not answered	7.9%	7.8%	6.5%	-0.1pp	-1.3pp	-1.4pp

🎓 Education

Group	2001 %	2011 %	2021 %	01→11	11→21	01→21
Apprenticeship	—	2.9%	4.5%	—	+1.6pp	—
Level 4 qualifications or above	22.7%	30.8%	39.3%	+8.1pp	+8.5pp	+16.6pp
Level 1 and entry level qualifications	17.2%	14.1%	9.2%	-3.1pp	-4.9pp	-7.9pp
Level 2 qualifications	21.6%	15.8%	13.3%	-5.8pp	-2.5pp	-8.3pp
Level 3 qualifications	8.8%	11.2%	14.8%	+2.4pp	+3.6pp	+6.0pp
No qualifications	23.6%	19.4%	16.2%	-4.2pp	-3.2pp	-7.5pp
Other qualifications	6.1%	5.8%	2.7%	-0.3pp	-3.1pp	-3.4pp

🏠 Housing

Group	2001 %	2011 %	2021 %	01→11	11→21	01→21
Owner-occupiers	76.4%	68.8%	66.3%	-7.6pp	-2.5pp	-10.1pp
Private renters	6.7%	12.5%	16.8%	+5.9pp	+4.3pp	+10.2pp
Rent free	2.1%	1.2%	0.1%	-0.8pp	-1.2pp	-2.0pp
Social renters	16.1%	17.4%	16.8%	+1.4pp	-0.6pp	+0.8pp

Previous MPs

1

MP	Party	From	To
Mr James Clappison	CON	1992-04-09	2015-03-30